ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL IMPACT OF THE RUSSIA-UKRAINE WAR ON NIGERIA

Abstract

This study was conducted to examine the economic and social impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on Nigeria. The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin, academic works, such as books, journal articles, magazines, newspapers, policy briefs and Nigerian Stock Exchange annual report were the instrument for data collection. The study utilized qualitative content analysis as a method of data analysis. The Russia-Ukraine war significantly exacerbated food price inflation in Nigeria, with critical staples like rice, and wheat experiencing sharp price increases. The Consumer Price Index surged from 17.1% to 22.0% post-war, reflecting broader inflationary pressures. The conflict disrupted global supply chains, particularly affecting imported goods, whose prices soared by 18.2%. The Russia-Ukraine war significantly worsened the cost of living in Nigeria, exacerbating food inflation. The Russia-Ukraine war brought mixed effects to the Nigerian stock market, initially boosting the NSE All-Share Index due to heightened oil prices. However, subsequent inflationary pressures and currency depreciation have eroded these gains, reflecting broader economic challenges. The volatility underscores the vulnerability of Nigeria's economy to global energy market disruptions and underscores the need for diversified economic policies. Based on the findings of this study, it was recommended were that Nigeria should invest in diversifying and increasing domestic agricultural production to reduce reliance on imported food staples. Enhancing local production of rice, maize, wheat, and vegetable oils through modern farming techniques, improved infrastructure, and support for small-scale farmers can help stabilize food prices and ensure food security. Nigeria should Introduce or expand social safety net programs targeted at vulnerable populations affected by rising inflation and unemployment. This could involve direct cash transfers, food assistance programs, or job creation schemes aimed at providing temporary relief and stabilizing household incomes. To enhance resilience, Nigeria should prioritize economic diversification away from oil dependence.